ElectionsIndia.org

Open methodology for Indian elections.

Per-constituency forecasts. Multi-cycle structural data. Bayesian and ensemble models. Methodology published before counting day, predictions unsealed during it. Researchers welcome.

The wager

Every forecast on this site is committed before the result is known. Methodology is the contract; accuracy is the test.

Choose a state

Live · methodology published

Tamil Nadu

Assembly 2026 · 234 constituencies
Open
Planned

Kerala

Assembly 2026 · 140 constituencies
Planned

West Bengal

Assembly 2026 · 294 constituencies
Planned

Puducherry

Assembly 2026 · 30 constituencies
Planned

Assam

Assembly 2026 · 126 constituencies

More states will be added as data is sourced and methodology validated against historical cycles. Contributions and tips welcome.

Open methodology

Every assumption documented.

Multi-cycle AC coefficients, Bayesian hierarchical models, Monte Carlo with calibrated mean reversion. Published in plain language before any prediction goes live.

Public data

Twenty-five years of voting.

Historical Assembly and Lok Sabha results per constituency, demographic features, candidate rosters. All available via REST API for researchers.

Honest accuracy

Predicted vs actual, transparently.

When the count finishes, every forecast is compared seat-by-seat against the result. Hits and misses are public. The model gets graded.

For researchers and journalists

REST API. Free to query.

All public data — constituencies, historical voting, demographics, candidate rosters, methodology metadata — is queryable via a public REST API. Predictions and Monte Carlo distributions become queryable after the unlock date for each cycle.

API documentation · Read the methodology · About this project